Rabu 6 Juni 2012

14:51  Tasrul Tanar: sekedar mengingatkan utk trading besok agak susah naiknya, cenderung SOS, hati-hati harga saham yg udh tinggi skrg dan cuan sebaiknya kurangi posisi, indikator sih masih positif, namun akan stag utk sementara 3,858.75 - 3,871.89 resistance yg harus diuji dulu.


11:41  CITIGROUP: BBRI: Why Buy now?
TP Rp7650

BRI has underperformed due to 2 successive quarters of weak micro lending. Mgmt explained that the decision not to raise borrowing limits of borrowers lacking the repayment capacity is to prevent a sharp rise in NPL (as was the case in 2007-08), which has led to customers switching to competitions. 

Why we think BBRI is a BUY now?

i) Shr px worst performing -21% YTD and has overcorrected to -2std below mean at 7.5x 1-yr fwd PE and 1.9x PB with 27% RoE. As comparison, 2008’s trough is 6x PER and 1.6x PBV.

ii) A pick up in micro lending with April disbursements matched the entire 1Q12. Salary loans (yields 18-20%) are also picking up post an increase in tenor from 8years to 10years.

iii) CASA growth remains strong +23% with Time Deposit rate cut further to 4.7% (previous 5.1%). This will support earning asset growth with low costs.

iv) NPLs hv bottomed and 2012 credit cost will be lower at ~1.5-1.8%. While 2012 may remain subdued, BRI’s franchise is robust enough to still deliver 25% pa book value growth.

Salman Ali rates Buy Tp Rp7650 (43% upside).



11:26   Stock watch : MNCN GROUP.


10:26  Asing net buy 16B


10:05  TIFA (now 305) sepertinya kelilingan, hati2... Disclaimer On


09:05 Nikkei +0.81%, hsi +0.71%, shg +0.23%, kospi +1.05%, asx +0.23%, sti +0.73%, idr 9450 +60, oil nymex 8481 +52, aud 0.9842 +0.0098, jpy 78.67 -0.05, eur 1.2494 +0.0046.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BREAKING NEWS : GOLDMAN SACHS PRESS RELEASE

Rabu, 6 -6-2012

Goldman Sachs telah me -release laporan nya mengenai harga COAL yg terlalu rendah.
Dalam laporannya dia mengatakan harga coal  $ 90 sudah tdk memungkinkan lagi untk terjerembab di bawah. hal itu di karenakan ongkos produksi serta biaya pajak hampir equivalent.Ini akan rebound setelah asutralia akan mengancam tdk akan meng -export batu bara jika turunnya lebih dr  $90.
ini akan menjadi berita positive untk saham batu bara di indonesia .
Hal lain jg di dasarkan oleh pernyataan Jero wacik bahwa besar kemungkinan COAL TAX akan di tiadakan.