Kamis 5 Juli 2012

15:28 Besok Listing :  PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (TOBA ) yang menawarkan 210.681.000 saham, dengan
harga penawaran Rp1900 per saham. Total dana yang diperkirakan diraih dari hasil penawaran umum saham perdana Rp400,29 miliar. PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk akan mencatatkan saham perdana pada 6 Juli 2012.  underwritter. PT Mandiri sec , PT Morgan stanley asia Indonesia , PT CLSA Indonesia


11:28  Kalo Bahana bilang REDUCE or DOWNGRADE, mendingan kita beli ajaahh....spt UNTR


11:27   5 July 2012Bahana Beacon – Result FlashBumi Resources1Q12 performance: Disappointing earnings on derivative losses
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪Well below our & consensus estimates: BUMI registered 1Q12 net loss of USD100m, which was significantly below our and consensus estimates, stemming from higher opex (+73% y-y), USD16m net derivative loss (1Q11: USD106m derivative gain), USD8m FX loss (1Q11: USD80m FX gain) and lower 1Q12 associates earnings of USD3.5m (-91% y-y).▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪Revenues up 19% y-y on 14% y-y higher volumes:  BUMI booked 1Q12 revenues of USD1.0b (-12% q-q and +19% y-y) on higher volumes of 15.9m tons (+14% y-y) and selling price of USD92.8/ton (+6% y-y), in line with our 2012 estimate (25%), but below consensus’ (20%).▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪Operating performance hurt by exploration and evaluation costs:   1Q12 operating profit of USD149m (-13% y-y) was 38% below our forecast, due to higher operating costs (+73% y-y) on greater exploration and evaluation expenses of USD59.7m.Outlook: Earnings downgrades in the offingWe note that BUMI is the only coal counter in our coverage having posted negative earnings in 4Q11 and 1Q12, cementing our negative view as the risks on its derivative instruments remain high. Please note that we have recently cut BUMI’s 2012 earnings by 40% and by 57% in 2013. The management has also recently revised its 2012 expected ASP to USD85/ton from USD90/ton previously, more in line with our estimate of USD86.6/ton.Recommendation & valuation: Negative sentiment to linger; REDUCEWe believe consensus will move to lower earnings on disappointing 1Q12 results, hence we still expect share price underperformance (exhibit 4) to persist going forward. We also expect slowing China and India economic growth will reduce coal demand, pressuring coal prices.  REDUCE



11:00  ***Why MUST BUY BHIT??

I. Divestasi anak Usaha MNC Sky Vision melalui IPO diperkirakan memberikan keuntungan sekitar USD 100 juta (Rp 920 miliar);

II. Rencana BHIT akuisisi sebuah Bank Devisa beraset Rp 10 triliun di semester 2/2012;

III. BHIT Mempunyai Cadangan batubara Terbesar ke-4 (Total berjumlah 2,26 miliar MT)  di Indonesia (PTBA 7,4 miliar MT, ADRO 3,48 miliar MT & BUMI 2,9 miliar MT)

Dari 1 KP dengan luas 2003 hektare yang ada di Kalimantan, perkiraan cadangan batubara sebesar 38 juta metric ton dimana saat ini jumlah produksi sebeaar 100 ribu MT/bulan & pada tahun 2013, akan berproduksi 2,5 juta - 4 juta ton per tahunnya;

Sedangkan dari 8 IUP yang dimiliki di Sumatra Selatan, dengan luas lahan 92000 hektar lahan yg dimiliki, maka Perkiraan CADANGAN batubara yang dikandung  sebesar 2,26 MILIAR Metric Ton (perincian: 1,16 miliar Metric ton sumber daya dan 1,1 miliar sumber daya hipotetik) dmn saat ini produksi 200 ribu MT/bulan dan pada tahun 2013 akan diproduksi sebanyak 5 juta metric ton per tahunnya.

Berdasarkan penjelasan diatas, kita sudah dapat menghitung berapa besar kontribusi yang akan diberikan terhadap REVENUE dan NET PROFIT BHIT diakhir tahun 2012 dan di tahun mendatang,

Padahal di Kuartal 1/2012 saja TANPA BELUM memasukkan sumbangan dari IPO MNC Sky Vision, Bank yang akan diakuisisi & kontribusi divisi batubara,  Laba bersih BHIT sudah Naik 38.23% menjadi Rp 474.08 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp 342.95 miliar (Disclaimer On)



10:44 
(Reuters) - Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, posted a net loss of $100.4 million in the first-quarter of 2012 due to global uncertainty and the weakening rupiah, the company said on Wednesday.

Bumi, controlled by the politically-connected Bakrie family and part-owned by financier Nathaniel Rothschild, said the worse-than-expected euro zone debt crisis caused the rupiah's weakening and the decline in its share price, which has led to losses in derivative assets and foreign exchange.
The company posted a restated $108.2 million net profit in the first quarter of 2011.
First-quarter revenue grew 19 percent to $1 billion, compared with restated revenue of $849.9 million in the same period a year ago, the company said in a statement.
Analysts forecast Bumi's 2012 net profit at $395 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Bumi expects to produce 75 million tonnes of coal this year with an expected average selling coal price of $85 per tonne, the company said.
Shares in Bumi gained more than 8 percent in the first quarter of 2012 to outperform the Jakarta index, which is up around 0.4 percent in the same period. (Reporting by Janeman Latul; Editing by Matthew Bigg and Jon Loades-Carter)



 
10:25   http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/04/bumi-results-idUKL3E8I24NX20120704  >>>>> BUY


09:50    Emas Masih Menunggu Keputusan Cut Rate

Emas tidak banyak bergerak pada Rabu sore, disebabkan  kurangnya aktivitas karena penutupan pasar AS untuk perayaan hari kemerdekaan dan  menjelang pertemuan ECB minggu ini.

Bank Sentral Eropa diperkirakan akan memotong suku bunga pinjaman sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan besok untuk meredakan krisis utang di kawasan itu, sementara Bank of England kemungkinan akan memperpanjang program pembelian aset sebesar 50 miliar pound (usd 32 miliar) untuk 375 miliar pound.

"Kecemasan bisa memberikan pasar logam mulia bias ke bawah memasuki hari perdagangan besok. Analis G10 kami berharap bahwa kedua bank sentral akan menurunkan suku bunga, yang kemungkinan besar akan mendorong reaksi positif dari logam mulia," kata Standard Bank dalam sebuah




Asian Stocks Snap Six-Day Gain on German Data Before ECB (By Jonathan Burgos)
July 04, 2012 8:14 PM EDT

(BN)Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for its first decline in seven days, after service-industry reports in Germany and the U.K. missed estimates, supporting the case for an interest-rate cut by the European Central Bank today.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 119.06 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.
*****

FOCUS LIST by Morgan Stanley (04.07.12):
*(BBRI ) Overweight  TP 7,845
*(BMRI) Overweight  TP 7,619
*(INTP) Overweight   TP 19,800
*(KLBF) Overweight  TP 4,350
*(TLKM) Overweight TP 9,600
*(SMGR) Equal-Weight TP 12,000
*(CPIN).   Overweight  TP 3,330
*(PGAS) Overweight  TP 4,550