Selasa 8 Mei 2012

14:55  SMCB SIYAP2 NEW HI

13:40  ZP:

Modernland (MDLN.IJ, UNDER REVIEW): Robust 1Q12 results
§  Modernland posted a 1Q12 net profit of IDR70b, up 154% YoY and 81% QoQ. Its revenue surged by 124% YoY and 71% QoQ to IDR306b, mainly underpinned by the carried over land sales from last year.

Analyst Comment:

§  The figure was above our expectations.
§  Operating margin was plummeted by 4ppts as the company booked a higher operating expense (+188% YoY). In contract, net margin rose by 3ppts, thanks to higher other income.
§  Going forward, we believe the commencement of Modern Cikande, the industrial estate segment, will be the main catalyst for the company’s performance this year.
§  We will revisit our model to adjust with the results. Current TP is IDR590, pegged at FY12F PER of 15.5x.


10:57  PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), produsen batu bara termal terbesar nasional, dijadwalkan membayar utang kepada China Investment Corporation (CIC) senilai US$ 600 juta  pada Oktober 2012. Dileep Srivastava, Direktur dan Sekretaris Perusahaan Bumi Resources, menjelaskan Bumi akan menggunakan dana untuk membayar utang itu dari penjualan 20% saham di PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk
(BRMS), anak usaha perseroan. (IFT,bsms)


10:39 UNTR (YU – Erindra Krisnawan)
Current Rp.28.450
Target Rp.26.000
Early warning signs
Our recent channel check reveals early signs of pressure in the heavy equipment business from increasing competition. While we do not yet see amajor earnings downside risk at this stage, the generally riskier environment warrants a valuation de - rating.
We cut our 2012-13 estimates by 5-6% on lower sales and margins.Target price is lowered toRp26,000 (based on lower target P/E of 11.6x, -1SD from the 3-year mean) to reflect the stock’s higher overall risk due to increasing competition and exposure to the softening coal price.Downgradefrom Neutral to Underperform.



TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:

·         BKSL TP 400 : cheapest in term of EV-to-land bank ( Head of Research: Verdi Budiman 6221-5296 9542 )

On that backdrop, today we add Sentul City (BKSL) into our top ten mid-small cap portfolio.

Sentul City (BKSL): cheapest in term of EV-to-land bank

I have rarely encountered a sell-side analyst brave enough to call any stock a double-bagger, let alone a three-bagger or more. The default is to set a target price that implies a 20-30% upside, sometimes 40% if it is really attractive, but that is about it. But in practice, many good stocks in Indonesia have risen by more than six-fold over the past three to four years, and the analysts who follow these stocks tend to keep stretching their target prices. This is especially true for property stocks that are being valued based on NAV, where a lot of subjectivity can take place.
My colleague Octavius (Oky) Perkasa performed a rather simplistic EV-to-land bank comparison across the listed residential developers.but at the current valuation the risk and reward profile appears to be favorable. Octavius Perkasa’s TP of Rp400/share appears conservative, with plenty of room to stretch if Sentul residential area gains momentum and the management continuing to deliver. For BKSL, April is set to be another record month in terms of marketing sales, coming in at above Rp70bn. BUY."