Kamis 14 Juli 2011

15:55  KIJA Akan Refinancing Utang US$35 Juta.
PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk mencari pendanaan senilai US$35 juta yang akan
digunakan membayar utang kepada PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk yang jatuh tempo pada tahun
2011. Dikabarkan Perseroan sedang mengkaji alternative pendanaan melalui penerbitan
rights issue maupun pinjaman dari Bank lainnya (Sumber: Bisnis Indonesia).
Tanggapan Kami:
Perseroan mencoba mempertahankan cash flow sehingga manajemen mencoba mencari
pendanaan baru. History data tahun buku 2010 net debt Rp1,178 miliar, BV/share :121,08,
pertumbuhan net income naik tipis 10,4%. PE KIJA :35,71x lebih mahal PE industry :34,71x
Target Prices Rp220. Rekomendasi : HOLD


15:36  TBLA earned its net profit as much as IDR 247 billion which was a decline from a year earlier of IDR 251 billion. The decline was due to less currency gained in 2010. it posted IDR 58 billion in 2011 from IDR 133 billion in 2009. Less gain on currency exchange was the prime suspect of less net earning in 2010. other than that, TBLA was quite OK. it booked IDR 350 billion of operating income last year from IDR 281 billion a year earlier. By : Asti Pohan


14:18  OUTPERFORM Maintained PT Harum Energy Tbk High growth, high returns Target: Rp12,000
Coal Mining
INDONESIA
HRUM IJ / HRUM.JK Erindra Krisnawan • Strong growth, superior returns, high dividend potential. We reiterate our price
target of Rp12,000 (16x forward P/E). Our 3-year earnings CAGR forecast of
33.3% is intact, while our more positive macro outlook for 3Q11 could provide a
near-term share-price catalyst. Harum continues to score well on profitability (ROE
of 75% for 2011F), growth prospects and dividend potential, which we have
captured in our target multiple (19% premium to peer average).


13:44  JAKARTA. PT Alam Sutra Realty Tbk (ASRI) tengah menjajaki penerbitan
  obligasi pada kuartal ketiga tahun ini. Nilainya diperkirakan bisa lebih dari
  Rp 1 triliun.
       "Rencananya dana dari obligasi ini untuk target akuisisi lahan di Jakarta
  atau Bali," ujar Corporate Secretary ASRI Hendra Kurniawan kepada KONTAN, Kamis
  (14/7).
       Menurut Hendra sejak IPO kinerja ASRI yang kinclong membuat beberapa
  sekuritas mendekati ASRI dan menyarankan menerbitkan obligasi. ASRI merespon
  positif ajakan ters~Rut karena melihat langkah tersebut sebagai alternatif
  pendanaan ekspansi. Sekedar catatan, per Desember 2010 nilai ekuitas ASRI
  mencapai Rp 2 triliun.
       "Sekarang ini kami belum menunjuk siapa sekuritas untuk penjaminan
  penerbitan obligasi nantinya.


13:35  A possible downgrade on US credit-rating should hurt sentiment on global markets. Expect IDX to move in mixed to lower directions today.

Stocks to watch:

Auto Sector- domestic car sales in 2011 could reach as many as 850K units, higher than Gaikindo's target of   830K units

PTBA- expects 1H11 net profit to be around Rp1.5tn (+65.2% yoy)- the number is 43% of FY11 consensus of Rp3.5tn

ELTY- said revenue in 1H11 should reach Rp700bn (+30% yoy) - it's 42% of FY11 consensus of Rp1.66tn

FASW- booked 1H11 sales of Rp2.07tn (+24% yoy) or 48% of the company's FY11 target
 
Cum Dividends:
BABP - Rp0.66 - 0.6% yield
BRAU - Rp3.55 - 0.7%
GDYR - Rp250 - 2.4%


11:57  OSK : Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID IJ; BUY; TP IDR 1,370) Initiation of coverage: A Good Bargain
We believe that the recent sharp correction in Delta Dunia (DOID)’s share price has opened up the opportunity to enter the stock.  DOID, via wholly-owned mining contractor unit BUMA, is well positioned to benefit from increasing coal production in Indonesia. We believe that the stock is attractively valued as it is trading at a 2012f PER and EV/EBITDA of 10.7x and 5.1x respectively. As this represents a significant 30% and 39% discount to UNTR’s 2012f PER and EV/EBITDA respectively, we see limited price downside. We also like DOID’s improved corporate governance and strengthening balance sheet. In this report, we initiate coverage on DOID with a blended valuation-based TP of IDR1,370


11:11  ELTY memperkirakan pendapatan semester 1-2011 mencapai lebih dari Rp
700 miliar, naik 30% dibanding periode sama tahun lalu. Kontribusi
pendapatan terbesar berasal dari sektor city property dan landed residential
seperti Superblock Rasuna Epicentrum dan Perumahan Bukit Nirwara
Residence


10:23  Bank Danamon - Rights Issue: Coming up!
(BDMN-HOLD-IDR5,800-TP:IDR6,500)
Recommendation and valuation
Given this possible rights issue plan, we recommend investors to stop accumulating BDMN shares, opting instead to take up the discounted rights price.  Our back-on-the-envelope calculation suggests that the rights issue would result in EPS and BVPS dilution as well as lower ROAE from the current level of 17.4%.  Thus, we downgrade BDMN’s target price to IDR6,500 (-9% from previously), implying 2012 P/BV of 2.6x (post rights issue).  HOLD (BAHANA- DX)

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Thursday Early BIRD Edition Edwin Sebayang

"..US Dollar Akan Makin Hancur, Komoditas Akan Makin Berjaya.."

Kenaikan Dow Jones +44.73 (+0.36% ) berpeluang mendorong naik Bursa Indonesia dlm perdagangan Kamis (14/7) setelah merujuk Minute Meeting The Fed bln Juni, dimana Ben Bernanke mengatakan akan  mengeluarkan QE Part 3 (walaupun justru ditentang keras oleh Pres Bank Central negara bagian Dallas, Richard Fisher) serta The Fed akan memotong suku bunga GWM bank yg mrk pegang untuk mendorong perbankan memberikan lebih banyak pinjaman ditengah turunnya aplikasi mingguan KPR perbankan AS serta adanya peringatan keras dari Moody's bahwa mungkin memotong Rating AAA AS seiring meningkatnya pesimisme kemungkinan tidak tercapainya kesepakatan antara Pemerintah dan DPR AS pd tgl 2 Agustus mengenai bagaimana mengatasi batasan utang AS sebesar USD 14,3 triliun dimana jika tidak tercapai kesepakatan akan menyebabkan default utang AS dan akan memporakporandakan Pasar Keuangan.

Konsekuensi apa yg akan muncul dari kebijakan The Fed tsb? ES memperkirakan ada bbrp hal spt: US Dollar akan semakin hancur dan itu artinya harga komoditas akan semakin melambung kedepannya, seperti harga emas semalam naik +1.22% (USD+19.1) mencetak level tertinggi baru diharga USD 1581.4/troy once.

ES juga mengkalkulasi penguatan Rupiah akan memberikan dampak positif bagi emiten berbahan baku US Dollar serta memberikan insentif positif bagi emiten yg punya exposure/hutang  besar dlm US Dollar.

ES juga meramal, likuiditas (hot money yg berasal dari carry trade) jg akan semakin banjir dipasar dan akan semakin byk masuk ke negara emerging market termasuk Indonesia.

DOW12491.61 +0.36%
NAS 2796.92  +0.54%
S&P 1317.72 +0.31%
OIL 97.83 +0.41%
GOLD 1581.4  +1.22%
NICKEL.23975   +1.4%
TIN.27400  +0.92%
CPO.3092  +0.32 %
TLK.32.99  (7050)
IIT.31.08   (5315)

Thu IDX Range: 3958-4005

BUY: ASII,UNTR,PTBA, ITMG,HRUM,INCO,TINS, JSMR,INDF,BBRI,BJBR,INTA,ASRI,INDY

ES-Disclaimer On