Kamis, 08 September 2011

Kamis 8 September 2011

KZ+Perusahaan+Gas+Negara+TP%3A+Sell%2C+Rp2%2C600%0D%0AFurther+downgrade+to+PGAS+today.+Key+points+from+the+report+%28attached%29%3A%0D%0A1.+Greater+Risk+that+other+legacy+contracts+could+be+renegotiated%0D%0A2.+Lowered+PT+from+higher+beta+assumption+due+to+greater+risk+premium%0D%0Aand+adjust+our+probability+weighted+scenario+analysis+to+factor+lower%0D%0Apass+through%0D%0A3.%26nbsp%3B+Full+pass+through+is+very+unlikely+-+PGAS+has+raised+prices+at+a%0D%0ACAGR+of+7%25+over+the+past+4+years+to+already+vocal+opposition%0D%0A4.+Near+term+earnings+misleading+-+margin+compression+expected.%0D%0APGAS+is+down+27%25+since+upstream+regulator+BPMigas+called+for%0D%0Arenegotiation+of+its+legacy+gas+purchase+contracts+to+market+rates.%0D%0AFirst+half+results+were+below+consensus+on+the+back+of+lower%0D%0Adistribution+volumes+and+higher+costs+but+consensus+downgrades+are+yet%0D%0Ato+play+out.%0D%0A%0D%0A----------------------------------------------------------------%0D%0A%0D%0ALOTS+Trading+Club%E2%84%A2+%7C+www.lots.co.id+%0D%0ALautandhana+Securindo+%7C+YJ%0D%0AInvestor+Reference+8+Sep+2011%0D%0A%0D%0AMembaca+LOTS%27+Global+Market+Statistics+pagi+ini+mata+Anda+pasti+langsung+berbinar-binar.+Saham+global+sepenuhnya+memuaskan+harapan+kita+kemarin+karena+hasrat+investor+kembali+ke+saham+dan+meninggalkan+gold+serta+safe+haven+currency.+Bursa+saham+memang+tengah+dibanjiri+sentimen+positif+yang+dimulai+oleh+kebijakan+bank+sentral+Swiss%2C+antisipasi+pertemuan+G7%2C+rencana+Obama+untuk+menekan+unemployment+rate+dengan+proposal+%24300bn+spending-nya+%28malam+ini%29%2C+kemudian+keputusan+pengadilan+tertinggi+Jerman+yang+menolak+tuntutan+atas+keterlibatan+mereka+dalam+bailout+negara-negara+bermasalah+di+euro+zone.+Sekalipun+semua+hal+tersebut+sifatnya+hanya+sebagai+penghilang+rasa+sakit+sementara%2C+toh+market+cukup+senang+dan%26nbsp%3B+memang+tengah+mencari+argumen+untuk+membeli+saham+yang+memiliki+valuasi+terendah+sejak+2009.%0D%0A%0D%0ASaham+apa+yang+istimewa+kemarin%3F+Tidak+disangkal+lagi%2C+coal+sector%3A+HRUM+dan+ITMG.+Catatan+penting+untuk+ITMG+adalah+minimnya+komitmen+jangka+panjang+di+saham+ini.+Tidak+seperti+emiten+coal+lain+yang+agresif+memburu+tambang+baru%2C+ITMG+justru+asyik+menghamburkan+profit+sebagai+dividen.+Untuk+short-term+sungguh+menggiurkan%2C+tapi+tidak+untuk+long-term+investor.+BUMI+juga+mendulang+gain+dan+target+profit+taking+naik+ke+2825+hari+ini.%0D%0A%0D%0ABerikutnya+ada+BORN+yang+turut+melambung+setelah+Merrill+Lynch+memborong+dan+merilis+report+%22Time+to+Relook+at+BORN%3F%22+Diberi+judul+seperti+itu+karena+BORN+memang+sempat+ditinggalkan+analis+secara+jama%27ah+untuk+beberapa+faktor.+Pertama%2C+BORN+masih+dianggap+newbie+sehingga+sulit+mendapat+harga+bagus+saat+negosiasi+dengan+customer.+Kontrak+terbaru+BORN+adalah+%40%24265%2Ft+vs+benchmark+%24285%2Ft.+Kedua%2C+problem+terbesar+BORN+sejak+awal+adalah+risiko+susutnya+sungai+Barito+yang+menjadi+media+transportasinya.+Sempat+kering+sebulan+dan+kehabisan+emergency+stockpile+hingga+hanya+40ribu+ton+%28vs+capacity+1juta+ton%29%2C+sang+sungai+kini+mulai+normal+dengan+stockpile+750ribu+ton.+ML+mematok+target+BORN+di+1750%2C+tapi+tunggu+dulu%2C+itu+dengan+asumsi+ada+upgrade+reserve+20%25%2C+cuaca+bagus%2C+harga+coking+coal+tidak+lebih+rendah+dari+%24255%2Ft+dan+segera+mendapat+izin+explorasi+blok+Telakon.%0D%0A%0D%0ADiluar+coal+stock%2C+ada+duet+raksasa+ASII+dan+GGRM.+Apa+yang+luar+biasa+dengan+ASII+adalah+emiten+ini+membuat+mobil+dan+motor+sekaligus+membangun+jalannya+dengan+terus+berekspansi+di+toll+road.+PGAS%2C+rebound+signifikan+sekalipun+masih+banyak+yang+meragukan+prospeknya.+Sebagian+beralasan%2C+seperti+Morgan+Stanley%2C+PGAS+mulai+memasuki+normalisasi+margin+dengan+dugaan+manajemen+akan+sukarela+menyesuaikan+kontrak+harga+beli+gasnya+yang+masih+dibawah+%243%2Fmbtu.%0D%0A%0D%0AInstead+of+mengejar+saham-saham+tersebut+diatas%2C+kami+lebih+prefer+untuk+mengambil+peluang+naiknya+indeks+hari+ini+untuk+Sell+On+Strength.+Termasuk+juga+JPFA%2C+CPIN+dan+SIPD.+Untuk+trading%2C+lebih+nyaman+di+BMRI%2C+BBNI%2C+BBKP+atau+BBTN.+Figur+inflasi+Agustus+memang+diatas+ekspektasi%2C+namun+BI+Rate+hari+ini+akan+bertahan+di+6%2C75%25.+Perhatikan+properti+yang+biasanya+menjadi+tandem+banking%2C+terutama+BSDE%2C+ASRI+dan+LPKR.%0D%0A---------------------------------------------------------------------%0D%0A%0D%0A%26nbsp%3BThursday+%288%2F9%29+Early+BIRD+Fundamental+Prespective+%28Edwin+Sebayang-MNC+Securites%29%0D%0A%0D%0ABursa+Indonesia+nampaknya+akan+melanjutkan+pendakiannya+diatas+level+4000+dlm+perdagangan+Kamis+%288%2F9%29+merujuk+tajamnya+kenaikan+harga+komoditas+spt%3A%26nbsp%3B+minyak+naik+%2B4.8%25+berada+diatas+USD90%2Fbarrel%2C+Nickel+%2B5.32%25%2C+Timah+naik+%2B2.09%25%2C+CPO+naik+%2B1.92%25+dan+tajamnya+penguatan+Dow+sebesar+%2B275.56+poin+ditengah+Rencana+Pres.+Obama+akan+menerapkan+Paket+Penciptaan+Lapangan+Pekerjaan+senilai+USD+300+miliar+serta+kenaikan+tajam+Bursa+Eropa+setelah+Pengadilan+Tertinggi+Jerman+menolak+sejumlah+gugatan+penolakan+Jerman+ikut+serta+membantu+negara+Eropa+lainnya+yg+sdg+menghadapi+krisis+%28spt%3A+Yunani%2C+Irlandia%2C+Portugal%29%2C+adanya+ekspektasi+Pemerintah+Yunani+menerapkan+Paket+Reformasi+spt+yg+diminta+Para+Krediturnya+mendorong+kenaikan+tajam+%2B20%25+saham+perbankan+Yunani+serta+Senat+Italy+mengesahkan+Paket+Penghematan+Anggaran+bernilai+Miliaran+Euro+utk+menolong+Italy+mjd+korban+selanjutnya+dr+krisis+hutang+Zona+Euro.%0D%0A%0D%0ASetelah+Buggy+Jumping+3+hari+berturut-turut%2C+akhirnya+Wall+Street+bernafas+lega+krn+Dow+Jones+ditutup+naik+%2B2.47%25+dipimpin+kenaikan+sektor+Keuangan+%26amp%3B+Energi%2C%26nbsp%3B+mendekati+level+tertinggi+dlm+perdagangan+Rabu%2C+diikuti+turunnya+Indeks+Ketakutan+Konsumer%2C+The+CBOE+Volatility+Index%2C+mjd+level+34%2C+dan+membukukan+kenaikan+pertama+kali+di+bln+September+ditengah+sedikit+meredanya+ketegangan+krisis+hutang+di+Eropa+dan+keterkejutan+investor+atas+isi+laporan+The+Fed+dlm+Beige+Book%2C+yg+menunjukkan+perlambatan+pertumbuhan+dibbrp+Negara+Bagian+AS.+%0D%0A%0D%0ADOW+11414.86+%2B2.47%25%0D%0ANAS+2548.94+%2B3.04%25%0D%0AS%26amp%3BP+1198.61+%2B2.86%25%0D%0AOIL+90.16%26nbsp%3B+%2B4.8%25%0D%0AGOLD+1819.%0D%0ACia+Yoo%3A+6+-2.86%25%0D%0ANICKEL+21775.+%2B5.32%25%0D%0ATIN+24375.+%2B2.09%25%0D%0ACPO+3032.+%2B1.92%25%0D%0ATLK.36.50%26nbsp%3B+%287805%29%0D%0AIIT.33.99%26nbsp%3B+%285800%29%0D%0A%0D%0AThu+IDX+Range%3A+3964-4076%0D%0A%0D%0ABUY%3A+ITMG%2C+ASII%2C+UNTR%2C+INTP%2C+AKRA%2C+SMGR%2C+JSMR%2C+BBRI%2C+BMRI%2C+ADRO%2C+BBNI%2C+MAPI%2C+BSDE%2C+ASRI+%28ES-MNC+Sec%2FDisclaimer+On%29%0D%0A-------------------------------------------------------------------------------%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AD%27COINS+-+DWAC+ONLINE+TRADING%0D%0ATechnical+View%0D%0A%28www.dcoins.co.id+-+08+September+2011%29%0D%0A%0D%0AKeputusan+Jerman+yang+akan+membantu+Bailout+utang+Eropa+serta+spekulasi+rencana+paket+Obama+senilai+US%24+300+miliar%2C+menyebabkan+indeks+bursa+eropa+dan+DJIA+naik+275%2C6+poin.+IHSG+diperkirakan+akan+naik+dengan+level+support+3953+dan+level+resisten+4055.+%0D%0A%0D%0ADWAC+Online+Trading+System+-D%27COINS+mencermati+beberapa+saham+untuk+trading%2C+antara+lain%3B%0D%0A%0D%0A-+BUMI+Support+Rp+2625+dan+Resisten+Rp.+2800%3B+2925.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+BBRI+Support+Rp.+6750+Resisten+Rp.+7000%3B+7150.%26nbsp%3B+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+INDY+Support+Rp+3175%26nbsp%3B+Resisten+Rp+3500%3B+3600.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+INTA%26nbsp%3B+Level+support+Rp+800+dan+Resisten+Rp+870%3B+900.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+TINS+support+Rp+2275+dan+resisten+Rp+2375%3B+2475.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+BUDI%26nbsp%3B+Support+Rp+305+dan+resisten+Rp+335%3B+365.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+PGAS+support+Rp+2875%26nbsp%3B+Resisten+Rp+3025%3B+3150.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+CPIN+support+Rp+2825+dan+resisten+Rp+3050%3B+3200.%26nbsp%3B+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+ADMG+support+Rp+740+dan+resisten+Rp+790%3B+850.+Buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0A-+MICE+support+Rp+46 +dan+rwsisten+Rp+500%3B+540+Trading%2C+buy+on+weakness%0D%0A%0D%0ASaham-saham+lain+yang+masih+menarik+dengan+pola+trading%2C%26nbsp%3B+antara+lain%2C+MNCN%2C+COWL%2C+ASRI%2C+BRPT+dan+PTPP.%0D%0A%0D%0A%28Disclaimer+On%29 0D%0A%+D%0A%0D%0A--------------------------------------------------------------%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AINILAH.COM%2C+Jakarta+-+Investor+dapat+menikmati+dividen+tunai+dari+PT+Bakrie+Brothers+Tbk+%28BNBR%29+jika+proses+kuasi+reorganisasinya+selesai.Demikian+dikutip+dari+hasil+riset+E+Trading+Securities%2C+kemarin.+%22Diharapkan+denganrampungnya+kuasi+reorganisasi+ini%2C+pemegang+saham+dapat+menikmati+nilai+tambah+dari+kinerja+keuangan+BNBR+dalam+bentuk+dividen+tunai.Sampai+dengan+30+Juni+2011%2C+BNBR+mencatatkan+laba+bersih+%28audited%29+Rp45%2C5+miliar+dari+sebelumnya+rugi+Rp171%2C5+miliar+pada+semester+pertama+2010+%28unaudited%29.Perseroan+akan+menggelar+RUPSLB+untuk+mempersiapkan+rencana+kuasi+reorganisasi+tersebut+pada+6+Oktober+2011+mendatang.+Rencana+RUPSLB+BNBR+mengagendakan+penghapusan+defisit+Rp27%2C7+triliun+%28per+31+Desember+2010%29+dalam+rangka+penuntasan+rencana+kuasireorganisasi+menurut+kami+merupakan+hal+yang+positif.Saldo+defisit+tersebut+merupakan+akumulasi+kerugian+bersih+sebesar+Rp16%2C5+triliun+di+2008%2C+lalu+Rp1%2C7triliun+pada+2009+dan+di+2010+lalu+juga+tercatat+Rp7%2C6+triliun.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar