Selasa 25 Oktober 2011

13%3A51%26nbsp%3B+JP+Morgan+downgrade+BUMI+from+4500+to+3000%0D%0A%0D%0A13%3A48%26nbsp%3B+CSFB+%3A+BCA%2C+our+target+price+from+Rp8%2C400+to+Rp9%2C500+as+we+roll+over+our+target+price+to+be+based+on+FY12E+Gordon%27s+Growth+model%2C+implying+5.0x+FY12E+P%2FB+and+20.7x+FY12E+P%2FE.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A12%3A03%26nbsp%3B+BUMI%3A+Bumi+terikat+perjanjian+hutang+sebanyak+%24375+dollar+dalam+bentuk+obligasi+tukar+saham+di+harga+Rp3.337%2Flembar+yang+ditandatangani+2009+untuk+sekitar+800+juta+lembar+saham.+Obligasi+tukar+saham+%28Convertible+Bonds%29+akan+jatuh+tempo+April+tahun+depan.+Berdasarkan+RUPS+kemarin%2C+Bumi+diijinkan+untuk+membeli+sampai+780+juta+lembar+saham.+Saat+ini+saham+dalam+portepel+%28treasury+stocks%29+ada+sekitar+480+juta+lembar%2C+jadi+Bumi+perlu+memberli+sebanyak+200-300+juta+lembar+dari+pasar.+Pada+saat+ini%2C+ketika+harga+dibawah+Rp3.337%2Flembar%2C+Bumi+akan+sangat+diuntungkan+jika+membeli+saham+dari+pasar.+Program+pembelian+kembali+saham+Bumi+tampaknya+akan+dilakukan+hari+ini.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A10%3A41+Moody%27s+downgrades+Bakrie+Sumatera+Plantations+to+Ca%3B+Outlook+Developing%0D%0A%0D%0AUSD+185+million+of+debt+securities+affected%0D%0A%0D%0ASingapore%2C+October+24%2C+2011+--+Moody%27s+Investors+Service+has+lowered+the%0D%0Acorporate+family+and+secured+bond+ratings+of+Bakrie+Sumatera+Plantations+Tbk%0D%0A%28BSP%29+to+Ca+from+Caa1.+The+outlook+of+the+ratings+is+developing.%0D%0A%0D%0ARATINGS+RATIONALE%0D%0A%0D%0A%22Bakrie+Sumatera%27s+bond+falls+due+on+1st+November%2C+and+with+no+committed%0D%0Abank+refinancing+signed%2C+the+likelihood+of+having+sufficient+funds+in+place%0D%0Aon+the+due+date+is+now+increasingly+remote%22+says+Alan+Greene%2C+a+Moody%27s+Vice%0D%0APresident+and+Senior+Credit+Officer.%0D%0A%0D%0AMoody%27s+understands+that+Credit+Suisse%2C+a+mandated+lead+arranger+for+the%0D%0Arefinancing%2C+has+approached+bondholders+with+a+view+to+offering+an+exchange%0D%0Aof+the+notes+into+a+loan.%26nbsp%3B+The+outlook+is+developing%2C+recognising+the+
otentil+outcomes+and+the%0D%0Avolatility+of+the+situation.+If+there+is+no+refinancing%2C+a+payment+default%0D%0Awill+be+inevitable.+If+a+loan+comprising+new+money+and+distressed+exchanged%0D%0Abonds+can*\+put+in+place%2C+the+company+would+gain+some+breathing+space%2C%0D%0Aalthough+this+mechanism+is+also+likely+to+be+regarded+as+`SUefault+by%0D%0AMoody%2%S.%0D%0A%0D%0A%22Further+out%2C+if+crude+palm+oil+and+rubber+prices+maintain+current+levels%2C%0D%0Awe+could+see+BSP+reduce+its+leverage%2C+although+we+still+have+concerns+about%0D%0Athe+contribution+from+its+recently+acquired+Domba+Mas+oleochemicals%0D%0Abusinesses.+However%2C+the+struggle+to+refinance+the+BSP+bonds+does+not+bode%0D%0Awell+for+the+%24150+million+bond+issued+by+Agri+International%2C+its+subsidiary%2C%0D%0Awhich+falls+due+in+July+2012%22+adds+Greene%2C+also+Lead+Analyst+for+BSP.%0D%0A%0D%0AMoody%27s+has+included+Domba+Mas+and+Agri+International+in+the+assessment+of%0D%0ABSP%27s+debt+leverage.+Moody%27s+notes+that+the+debt+of+Domba+Mas+and+Agri+are%0D%0Aring-fenced+from+the+rest+of+BSP.+However%2C+the+operating+linkages+between%0D%0AAgri%2C+BSP+and+Domba+Mas+have+strengthened+in+recent+months.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A--------------------------------------------------------+%0D%0APERSONAL+VIEW+on+25.10.11%0D%0AOn+Global+Market%0D%0ABursa+saham+%26amp%3B+komoditas+mengalami+rally+stlh+rilis+ttg+sektor+Manufacturing+di+China+m%27galami+pertumbuhan%2Cpertama+dlm+4bln+t%27akhir+diikuti+dg+report+ttg+kenaikan+ekspor+Jepang+bln+lalu+sebesar+2.4%25+diatas+ekspektasi.%26nbsp%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0ASmtr+pemimpin2+Eropa+sampai+tgl+26Okt%2711+msh+akan+sibuk+berdebat+m%27cari+jln+keluar+utk+mengurangi+beban+utang+Yunani+serta+m%27cari+konsep+terbaik+dlm+mendistribusi+kan+dana+talangan+lbh+dr+1tn+Euro+%28%241.4Tn%29.%0D%0A%0D%0AOn+Regional+Market%0D%0ABursa+Asia+menguat+signifikan%2C+ditutup+rata2+naik+lebih+dr+2%25.+Penguatan+kali+ini+dimotori+oleh+Hang+Seng%28%2B4%2C14%25%29+ke+level+18.771%2C82%2C+yg+diikuti+oleh+Shanghai+%28%2B2%2C29%25%29+ke+level+2.370%2C33%2C+Straits+Times+terakselerasi+%28%2B2%2C32%25%29+ke+level+2.775%2C36.+Sedangkan+Nikkei+225+menguat%28%2B1%2C90%25%29+ke+level+8.843%2C98.+MSCI+Emerging+Markets+Index+naik+3.6%25.+Pagi+ini%2C+indeks+regional+Asia+diprediksi+msh+akan+melanjutkan+penguatannya+sejalan+dgn+sentimen+rally+bursa+global.%26nbsp%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0AOn+Commodities+%26amp%3B+Currencies%0D%0ASentimen+positif+dr+Jepang+%26amp%3BChina+membuat+harga+komoditas+bergerak+naik+pesat%2C+London+Metal+Exchange%2C+index+%27measuring%27+copper%2C+aluminum%2C+nickel%2C+lead%2C+zinc+and+tin+naik+5.9%25%2C+kenaikan+t%27tinggi+sejak+29+Oct.%2708.+Harga+minyak+mentah+di+New+York+surplus+4.4%25+mjd+%2491.27+per+barrel.+The+%E2%82%ACuro+menguat+0.2%25+mjd+%241.3923%2C+penguatan+t%27tinggi+dlm+sebln+blkgn+ini.%0D%0A%0D%0AOn+Local+News%0D%0AKmrn%2C+ada+perhelatan+yg+digelar+BKPM+selaku+pemrakarsa+diskusi+interaktif+dg+pembicara+kondang+DR.Doom%28Prof.Nouriel+Roubini%29.+View+yg+dikemukakannya+ternyata+msh+berkutat+diseputar+isu+yg+sama%2C+potensi+60%25+resesi+bagi+negara+AS%2C+krisis+utang+yg+msh+b%27kepanjangan+di+Eropa%2C+sedikit+view+yg+berbeda+ttg+Indonesia+%2B+negara+%27Emerging+Market%27+yg+diprediksi+msh+akan+mampu+bertahan+terutama+jika+sektor+Infrastruktur+%26amp%3B+sektor+riil+bs+bergerak+lbh+lincah%2C+pernyataan+yg+%27in+line%27+dg+program+kerja+yg+dicanangkan+oleh+tim+pengundang+%28BKPM%29+serta+wacana+pak+SBY+belakangan+ini.+%0D%0A%0D%0ASeperti+prediksi+senin+pagi%2C+akhir+sesi+2%2C+IHSG+ditutup+menguat+di+atas+level+psikologis+3703+mjd+3706.64+terakselerasi+cepat+2.37%25+dg+support+value+%28Rp.4.86+Tn%29+%26amp%3B+volume%281.19+milyar+saham%29%2C+transaksi+perdagangan+saham+yg+b%27ada+diatas+value+yg+konservatif+ini+jg+ditopang+oleh+nett+buy+foreigner+senilai+Rp.+405+Milyar+dgn+leading+mover+saham+sektor+Finance+%28%2B3.55%25%29+%26amp%3B+Manufactur+%28%2B2.96%25%29%2C+diikuti+oleh+Mining+%28%2B1.43%25%29+serta+Consumer+%28%2B2.47%25%29.+Nilai+tukar+Rupiah+thdp+dolar+AS+kembali+menguat+tipis%26nbsp%3B+mjd+Rp.8844%2Fdlr+AS.%0D%0A%0D%0AAdalah+%27Positive+Earnings+Reports%27+emiten+berkapitalisasi+bsr+yg+mulai+di%27published%27+selama+sepekan+ini+yg+mjd+katalisator+positif+perdagangan+saham+yg+tentunya+akan+dibayangi+oleh+aksi+%22sell+on+news%22+dr+investor+yg+tlh+menghitung+kenaikan+revenue+emiten+pd+Q3.+Tercatat%2C+BBCA%2C+BDMN%2C+BMRI%2C+BBNI%2C+yg+diprediksi+akan+merilis+kenaikan+pendapatan+diatas+ekspektasi.+%0D%0A%0D%0ALanjutan+penguatan+indeks+hari+ini+diprediksi+berada+dikisaran+3648+-+3746+dgn+level+indeks+3717+sbg+pertahanan+indeks+yg+perlu+dicermati.%0D%0A%0D%0AOn+Stock+Pick%0D%0AMsh+direkomendasikan+utk+tetap+menggunakan+pola+%27trading+buy%27+bagi+investor+yg+akan+%27using+on+Earnings+Season+momentum%27+mskpn+range+tradingnya+tdk+terlalu+panjang%2C+disiplin+dlm+menggunakan+peluang+utk+merealisasikan+untung+atau+stop+loss+tetap+menarik+utk+dilakukan+selama+kondisi+volatilitas+indeks+global+terlihat+msh+blm+akan+berakhir+cepat.%26nbsp%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0ASaham+pilihan+investasi%3A+%0D%0AFinance%3A+BBRI%2C+BMRI%2C+BBNI%3B+BBCA%3B+%0D%0AManufacture%3A+ASII%2C+IMAS%2CGJTL%3B+UNTR%3B%0D%0AInfrastructure%3A+TLKM%2CJSMR%2CSMGR%2CMETA%3B%0D%0AMining%3A+PTBA%2CHRUM%2CPGAS%3BADRO%2CBUMI%3BENRG%0D%0APlantation%3A+AALI%3B+BWPT%3B%0D%0AConsumer+Goods%3A+INDF%2CKLBF%2CGGRM%2C+AISA%3B%0D%0AProperty%3A+ASRI%2C+SSIA%0D%0A%0D%0AJCI+for+today%3A%0D%0ASupport%3A%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B+3680%3B+3643%26nbsp%3B+%0D%0AResistance%3A%26nbsp%3B+3730%3B+3753%26nbsp%3B+%0D%0AUSD%2FIDR%3A%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B+8850-8900+%0D%0A%0D%0A%22Selamat+berkarya+%26amp%3B+berinvestasi%22%0D%0A%28By%3A+Cynthia.+Source%3A+BN%2C+CNBC%2C+BI%2C+Kontan%29%0D%0A*********