Senin 10 Oktober 2011

14:49  2. Top BUYS and SELLS
2.1 Top BUYS
#1: Astra Internasional • Our top pick is the largest stock on the JCI and is widely viewed as good proxy for Indonesia’s economy. Its dtrong balance sheet, good credit ratings and above-average corporate governance cement its blue chip status. • Even if the auto sector is squeezed by tight liquidity, Astra normally gains market share because of: 1) the popularity of its models, which means lower collateral risk; 2) its well-capitalised finance companies that will support. • Bottom at P/E of 4x and 1x P/BV in 2008/9 but that was in the darkest moments when financing was in question and lending rates rocketed.

October 10, 2011 7
#2: Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) • Industry consolidation prodded by the government via higher taxes for smaller producers play in favour of GG. This, coupled with normalising excise collections, should allow GG to boost its margins. • The completion of its internal restructuring means market share will continue to firm up, while distribution margin gains cannot be ruled out in the medium term. • Bottom at 2.4x P/E and 0.5x P/BV in 2008/9 in part due to restructuring just starting and industry consolidation still at an infancy stage.

#3: Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) • Underperforming big bank peers from the peak in early Aug 11 on overplayed concerns, we believe. Valuation is attractive at 2.3-2.0x FY11-12 P/BV and 9.7-8.9x PE. • Loan growth should outpace big bank peers (Jun 11: 27% vs. sector's 24%), in our view, while NIM could increase on expansions to micro and auto loans vs. other big banks'


13:32  It's time to BUY !!!!
Goldman Sachs downgrades banking stocks:

*DJ Bank Tabungan Negara Target Cut To IDR1,400 Vs IDR1,750 By GS
*DJ Bank Tabungan Negara Raised To Buy From Neutral By GS
*DJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia Target Cut To IDR5,800 Vs IDR7,0M By GS
*DJ Bank Negara Indonesia Target Cut To IDR3,500 Vs IDR4,300 By GS
*DJ Bank Mandiri Target Cut To IDR7,100 Vs IDR8,500 By GS
*DJ Bank Danamon Target Cut To IDR3,800 vs IDR5,244 By GS


11:44  BUMI TO COMPLETE FIRST-TRANCHE REPAYMENT OF $600 MILLION OF DEBT TO CIC BY THURSDAY (OCTOBER 13)


10:49   Rupiah Slide May Force Indonesia to Delay Interest-Rate Cut (1)
2011-10-10 02:51:54.16 GMT
     (Updates market data in the fifth paragraph.)
By Novrida Manurung and Manish Modi
     Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia will probably leave interest rates unchanged for an eighth month, after a tumble in the nation’s currency curbed scope for lower borrowing costs to bolster expansion as global economic growth weakens.
     Bank Indonesia will keep its benchmark reference rate at 6.75 percent, according to all 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a decision due in Jakarta tomorrow.
     Indonesia’s rupiah slid about 4 percent against the dollar in the past month as the Jakarta Composite Index of stocks slumped the second-most in Asia during the period. While Bank Indonesia has hYgnaled it may join emerging markets such as Brazil and Turkey in lowering rates if inflation moderates further, a cut risks eroding the appeal of the currency.
     “The currency’s fall is the reason they will leave the benchmark rate unchanged,” said Anton Hendranata, an economist
at Bank Danamon Indonesia in Jakarta. “But Bank Indonesia will have room to cut in December. We need low interest rates to support growth next year because the problems in the U.S. and Europe may affect Indonesian exports.”
     The Jakarta Composite Index has fallen 13.8 percent in the past month,Fthe mot in Asia after Thailand’s SET Index, as Europe’s debt crisis and a faltering U.S. economy cloud the outlook and prompt investors to pare bets on emerging markets.
The rupiah weakened 0.3 percent today to 8,965 per dollar as of 9:31 a.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



09:48  REMINDER::: Besok Tgl 11 Oktober Pengumuman BI Rate


The J.P. Morgan View: It is all up to fiscal policy. Monetary is done. • Economics –– Growth forecasts reduced for UK, EM Asia, and Latin America, bringing 2012 EM growth down by 0.2%. US data are tracking a soft growth picture, but one that is not falling into recession at the moment.• Portfolio strategy –– Monetary policy has provided greaT help fo the world economy but is now nearly done. Fiscal and regulatory policy makers have done more damage than good, by creating huge uncertainty. We do not see imminent changes here and thus remain defensive on risk assets.• Fixed Income –– EM bonds are at risk of further foreign outflows.• Equities –– The market rebound over the past week was largely driven by short covering, induced by rumours and speculation. We stay with a defensive stance, underweighting Cyclical sectors.• Credit –– Keep a preference for EM sovereign vs. EM corporate credit and US vs. Euro credit as flight to quality prevails.• Foreign exchange –– Take profits on the last USD short (vs NOK), but keep sovereign hedges in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.• Commodities –– Copper prices below $7,000/mt are likely to encourage restocking in China.