Jum'at 30 Des 2011

14:50   ONWJ acquisition a lucrative deal indeed

   
 
We recently met with the senior management of ENRG to learn more about the company’s move to acquire a majority stake in CNOOC ONWJ Ltd. Overall, the acquisition may lift proportionate EBITDA estimate by 38% and EPS by 29% for FY12E, based on conservative (zero growth) assumption for the newly acquired asset. With major EPS uplift in 1Q12 coming from the consolidation of CNOOC ONWJ Ltd, and another uplift in 3Q12 coming from the new gas flow from Kangean TSB field, FY12E is set to be a year of major turnaround for the company with a potential quadrupling of EBITDA and a ten-fold increase in EPS. The forecast and valuation table presented below has not accounted for the deal’s EPS accretion that could place the stock’s FY12E P/E at below 8x. Buy.



A done deal with positive carry and EPS accretion. The deal has reached financial close with 100% debt financing that should repay itself in three years. The acquired asset yielded US$132mn of EBITDA and US$51mn of net profit in 9M11. Compared to the US$212mn price tag, the deal should give positive carry in terms of operating cash flow to ENRG, enhance its EPS, and improve its debt ratio.  

Positive effects on income statement based on proforma analysis. Had we consolidated CNOOC ONWJ Ltd on a 51% basis to ENRG since 1 January 2011, the 9M11 EBITDA would have been 100% bigger and net profit 360% higher, after taking into account the increased borrowing level and interest expense.

CNOOC ONWJ Ltd is selling its gas at around US$2.65 per mmbtu, currently. Recently, the head of oil and gas regulator BPMigas urged all domestic gas exploration companies to renegotiate gas selling price upward while suggesting a minimum price of US$5.00/mmbtu.

Importantly, overall debt cost may come down as the deal improves debt service ratios. Based on 100% consolidation, the senior management expects the company’s net-debt-to-EBITDA to decline to around 3.3x from above 5x pre-deal.


14:38  RUPSLB BORN: Direktur Samin Tan mundur, berencana memfokuskan diri ke bumi resources mineral. Born berniat buyback saham. Direktur Utama baru BORN Alexander Ramlie.
 
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Investor Reference 30 Dec 2011

Dow mengambil kembali hampir semua poin yang hilang sehari sebelumnya setelah rilis sejumlah data makro domestik secara konsisten menunjukkan trend yang positif. Pending Home Sales dan American Business Activity naik melebihi perkiraan, sementara Jobless Claim turun ke level terendahnya dalam tiga tahun terakhir.

Dengan berbekal statistik itu, Wall Street yang diikuti juga dengan bursa Eropa menguat dan melupakan sementara kesulitan yang masih dihadapi Italia. Negara dengan ekonomi ketiga terbesar di Eropa ini gagal meraup dana secara optimal pada lelang obligasi 10-year kemarin. Yield obligasi tersebut juga masih tetap tinggi, yaitu 6,98%, tipis dibawah level psikologis 7%. Rekor tertinggi yield obligasi Italia berada di level 7,56% yang terjadi bulan lalu.

Dari pasar domestik, rebound mendadak saham-saham big-caps menyelamatkan IHSG dari potensi koreksi lanjutan. Jika sentimen pasar dapat bertahan minimal seperti saat ini, investor masih dapat memperoleh peluang gain memanfaatkan pola sideways di banyak saham.

Selain di big-caps, satu peluang lain yang patut dipertimbangkan ada di dua emiten poultry, CPIN dan JPFA. Kinerja keduanya underperform the market selama dua bulan terakhir menyusul anjloknya harga DOC ke level terendahnya Rp800 per ekor November lalu. Jika cost of production per ekor DOC adalah Rp3000-Rp3500 (menurut asosiasi unggas lokal), produsen DOC jelas merugi.

Kini harga DOC broiler telah stabil dikisaran 3700-3800, tidak jauh dari harga ideal yang Rp4000, dimana tidak terlalu mahal untuk peternak namun juga menguntungkan produsen. Dengan harga saham CPIN dan JPFA yang kelihatannya sudah sampai di titik nadirnya, membeli duo saham ini rasanya sangat layak untuk dipertimbangkan!