Pada tgl 12 Mei 2011, MA60 nya yg saat itu di harga 1150 di break dgn volume, dan di tutup 1200.
Saat ini harga CMNP sedang pullback untuk membuat baseline kuat di MA200 yi 1220 (garis hijau).
Happy Cuan, disclaimer On
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Bumi Resources, Energi Mega, and the Bakrie Group – Vallares, an acquisition vehicle backed by Nathaniel Rothschild and former BP (BP.L) boss Tony Hayward will announce its intention to float as early as next week, according to Reuters. Vallares aims to raise around 1 billion pounds ($1.6 billion) to invest in oil assets. Sources said the group was aiming for a listing in the coming month, despite ongoing market volatility and an uneven success rate for European offerings.
My take – I am most curious on the timing of the deal, that may reflect Mr. Rothschild’s confidence that his current deals can shine just before the launch of Vallares IPO. Investors with high risk appetite and wild imagination may start speculating on Energi Mega Persada (ENRG) being a take-over target for Vallares, in a similar deal structure to Bumi Resources. Energi Mega management will be in Singapore and Hongkong this Wed & Thu with JPMorgan, on a non-deal roadshow.
Indonesia Coal Mining (Stevanus Juanda) – Buy Indo coal on drought, price control and lower import tax in China. We believe that demand from China could be the next catalyst that will push coal price and Indonesia coal stocks upwards: (1) Yangtze river (water supply into Three Gorges Dam with generating capacity of 18.2GW) is experiencing the worst drought in 50 years. (2) Potential price control on China domestic coal price. (3) Potential lowering of the VAT tax on imported coal. (4) Chinese IPPs have not been importing despite rising domestic demand; evidenced by imports down 27% YTD until April 11. BRAU, BUMI, INDY and HRUM are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of coal price increases.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/ PubServlet?action=email&doc= GPS-605154-0.pdf
The JPMorgan view – Equities: EM equities have again started outperforming their DM counterparts into June. Stay OW.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/ PubServlet?actionpen&doc= GPS-604968-0.pdf
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Agenda 06 Juni 2011
Rups Esti, BRMS, Smsm, , Pudp, KRAS, , (PTBA?), BISI, ICON, Pan Pacifik Int,
Cum Dev MEGA 3,450, Cum Bonus MEGA 500.000:73.043, Cum Dev BBCA 70, Cum Dev Fasw 45, Cum Dev WIKA 16,68
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Reignwood pledges 16% ENRG
Thai-based conglomerate Reignwood International Investment (Group) Company Limited, which is founded in 1984 by Thai-Chinese businessman Chanchai Ruayrungruang, has pledged 6.4 billion shares or nearly 16% of total equity of oil and gas company PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG) to The Siam Commercial Bank Public Company LImited.
Assuming the market price on Wednesday at Rp210, Reignwood has pledged Rp1.34 trillion of Energi Mega shares on May 19. However, there is no clarity from Reignwood about the pledge purpose.
Despite the pledge, Energi Mega soared 8.25% on Wednesday to Rp210, sending a 25% monthly gain to investors.
Two sources familiar with the deal said using loan facility from Siam Bank, Reignwood might release shares of Energi Mega which previously pledged by their owners to several creditors.
This actions are similar when Bakrie Group initiated to release shares of Bumi Resources before they transferred the shares to Bumi Plc.
Bakrie Group obtained US$1.34 billion loan facility from Credit Suisse to settle Bakrie's debt to all creditors and release the pledge.
Herwin Hidayat, Head of Investor Relations at Energi Mega, said he didn't have any information relating to the pledge and who investors behind Reignwood. "We received the letter from Reignwood and filed it to Indonesia Stock Exchange as a disclosure," he said.
Reignwood manages four business sectors such as consumer goods, modern services industry, sport, art, and culture, investment and financial services. Red Bull Vitamin Drink Company Limited in China is one of companies owned by Reignwood Group.
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Goldman Sachs : Tp 2650 idr.
Antam has acquired the Sarolangun coal mine in Jambi Province for Rp92.5b. Its main aim was to ensure steadfast coal supply for its planned power plant in Sulawesi.
The company has held the groundbreaking ceremony for its chemical grade alumina (CGA) plant in Tayan, which is expected to start commercial production in January 2014.
Our View
Sarolangun is estimated to hold coal reserves of 15m tonnes with calorific value of 5,3005,500kcal/kg. This translates to an acquisition value of around US$0.7/tonne, which is a bargain at the current coal price level.
The mine is already operational, producing 200,000 tonnes of coal last year.
Antam intends to ramp up annual production to 700,000 tonnes from this year, of which 200,000 tonnes will be consumed inhouse and the rest sold to external parties.
However, its 2x30MW power plant will be ready only in 2014, which means Antam can sell Sarolangun’s entire output for the next two years.
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PERSONAL VIEW on 06.05.11 by cynthia
Global Market
*Sentimen ekonomi AS: penantian keputusan The Fed atas lanjutan QE2 yg berakhir bulan ini serta kebijakan baru bank sentral AS atas pertumbuhan ekonomi yg melambat pasca berakhirnya QE; pengajuan permintaan Pemerintah AS untuk menaikkan batas utang yg saat ini telah mencapai US$ 14,2 Triliun.
* Uni Eropa & IMF menyelesaikan kajian thdp upaya penjualan aset &langkah penghematan anggaran Pemerintah Yunani utk pemberian paket bailout senilai US$113 miliarselama 2thn.
* Harga kontrak berjangka Minyak mentah diperdagangkan fluktuatif antara US$98 dan US$103 per barrell pekan ini. Kenaikan pasokan minyak mentah menyebabkan turunnya harga minyak mentah dlm p'dagangan 'intraday'.
Local News
* Laju inflasi bulan mei 0.12%;
* Pengumuman BI Rate pd tgl 9 Juni'11 yg diperkirakan akan mampu memberikan sentimen positif bagi bursa saham.
* Nilai tukar Rupiah menuju Rp 8400 dipasar spot pekan lalu mencapai Rp 8528 (nilai tertinggi sejak tahun 2004).
* Prediksi gubernur BI atas tren surplus Neraca perdangan yg kian menipis akibat jarak aktifitas ekonomi negara maju vs negara berkembang akan menyempit yg disinyalir akan mengakibatkan berkurangnya capital inflow.
*Suspensi layanan Wealth Management yg berakhir, signal positif bagi para fund manager.
IHSG
*27 Mei-3Juni'11:
IHSG : 3832.38 - 3844.02
USD/IDR : 8565 - 8537
Hot Money : Rp.(+)260,39 M
*Perdagangan saham pd pekan lalu ditutup naik tipis 0.16% di level 3844.02
*Perkiraan rentang pergerakan bursa saham hari ini 3825-3860.
*Saham pilihan: BBRI; BMRI; INDF; GGRM; CPIN; PTBA; ITMG; ADRO; ANTM; TINS; UNTR; JSMR; SMGR;ASRI; BSDE.
*JCI for today:
Support: 3785; 3810
Resistance: 3830; 3856
USD/IDR: 8510-8540
"Selamat berkarya & berinvestasi...."
(sources by cnbc; bloomberg; kontan daily; bisnis indonesia)
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Monday Early BIRD Edition (Edwin Sebayang-MNC securites)..
Bursa Indonesia sepanjang pekan ini akan di test kembali apakah cukup "sakti" menghadapi kejatuhan Bursa Regional dmn Wall Street masih berpotensi turun kembali -5% diminggu2 kedepan krn akan lebih banyak berita buruk yg dihadapi spt lemahnya pertumbuhan tenaga kerja (pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yg melemah), berakhirnya program stimulus The Fed yg sdh didepan mata serta mengingat persoalan sovereign debt di Zona Euro & berakhirnya masa laporan keuangan.
Wall Street kembali turun dihari ke 3 dlm perdagangan Jumat membuat selama 3 hari Dow Jones turun -420 poin setelah keluarnya data mengenai tingkat pekerjaan menambah daftar mengecewakan data ekonomi sepanjang minggu ini yg lebih mengindikasikan perlambatan ekonomi ditengah telah disetujuinya 2nd tranche paket bailout ke Yunani dan adanya pertambahan tenaga kerja yg lebih baik di sektor jasa.
Sepanjang pekan lalu, Dow Jones turun -2.33% dan ini kali pertama Dow turun 5 minggu berturut-turut sejak Juli 2004.
Wall Street langsung terkena tekanan jual diawal perdagangan setelah data Nonfarm Payroll hanya naik 54,000 di bln Mei, pertambahan terkecil utk pekerjaan sejak September 2010, pdhl konsensus memperkirakan tjd pertambahan 150,000 pekerjaan sementara Tingkat Pengangguran bln Mei naik mjd 9.1% dibandingkan konsensus akan terjadinya penurunan mjd 8.9%.
Bbrp data ekonomi & emiten penting yg akan keluar di AS sepanjang minggu ini (Jun 06-10) spt: Weekly mortgage applications, McDonald's sales data, oil inventories, Fed's Beige Book, jobless claims, wholesale trade, Import & export prices.
DOW 12151.26. -0.79%
NAS 2732.78 -1.46%
S&P 1300.16 -0.97%
OIL 100.46 +0.06%
COAL 119.34. - 0.11%
GOLD 1541.70 +0.63%
NICKEL. 22800. +1.11%
TIN.26400 -0.75%
CPO.3448. +0.52%
TLK.35.71 (7605)
IIT.30.35 ( 5170)
Mon IDX Range: 3800-3850
BOW: BBRI, TLKM, ITMG, ASRI, INDF, INDY, BMRI, UNVR, AKRA, UNTR, ASII, MAPI, PTBA (ES-MNC Securities/Disclaimer On)
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Update on KRAS: KRAS Bangun Proyek Blast Furnace
PT Krakatau Steel Tbk (KRAS) akan mencari pendanaan proyek pembangunan blast furnacese senilai Rp5,92 triliun antara lain sekitar 85% dari kredit ekspor dan 15% dari ekuitas.
Pembangunan blast furnace ini berkapasitas 1,2 juta ton per tahun termasuk sintering plant, coke oven plant, iron ore material handling system, hot metal handling system senilai Rp5,92 triliun. Untuk investasi proyek di luar paket EPC termasuk kebutuhan modal kerja didanai 100% dari ekuitas perusahaan.
Kontraktor rencana pembangunan blast furnace ditetapkan berdasarkan tender yang telah dilaksanakan oleh Perseroan. Saat ini, perseroan sedang melakukan negoisasi kontrak. Pembangunan pabrik blast furnace ini dilaksanakan mulai kuartal ketiga 2011 dan diharapkan selesai pada semester pertama 2014.
Total proyek mencapai Rp5,92 triliun atau sama dengan 63,7% dari ekuitas perseroan pada 31 Desember 2010 sehingga rencana proyek ini masuk dalam transaksi material peraturan Bapepam-LK IX.E.2. Perseroan akan meminta persetujuan pemegang saham untuk menyetujui rencana transaksi material dalam Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham (RUPS) yang akan diadakan pada 6 Juni 2011. (IC, 6/6)
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