Selasa, 21 Juni 2011

update rumours and news Selasa 21 Juni 2011

15:01  BUMI ANALYST MEETING-21 juni 2011.. - Lautandhana Securindo..
1. Tidak ada perubahan yang signifikan atas implementasi penggunaan pencatatan akuntansi (dari GAAP menjadi IFRS). Laba bersih BUMI di 1Q11 tercatat sebesar US$ 112 juta berdasarkan IFRS, lebih rendah sebesar US$ 1 juta dengan kebijakan akuntansi yang lama;
2. Target produksi batubara perseroan juga tidak berubah (dari analyst meeting sebelumnya di April 2011). BUMI menargetkan total produksi batubara hingga 2013 dapat mencapai sebanyak 113 juta ton seiring dengan pembangunan conveyer belt baru yang diharapkan selesai tahun 2012;
3. Untuk tahun ini, volume penjualan batubara bumi diproyeksikan dapat mencapai 66 juta ton (+8,7% YoY) dengan ASP US$ 90 per ton (+26,7% YoY), sedangkan ASP untuk domestic sebesar US$ 50 per ton;
4. Untuk pengurangan pinjaman, BUMI tengah mengkaji beberapa opsi diantaranya: melakukan swap hutang CIC dengan CB atau pembayaran lebih cepat utang CIC di Oktober 2011. BUMI mengatakan masih banyak opsi opsi yang lain untuk concern penguranag hutang ini;
5. Untuk alokasi capex, BUMI menganggarkan capex sebesar US$ 150 juta hingga US$ 200 juta tahun ini, fokuskan pada maintenance cost;
6. Sekitar 45% (sebanyak 29,7 juta ton) volume penjualan batubara BUMI sudah terealisasi di 1H11 sedangkan sisanya akan terealisasi pada 2H11;
7. Saat ini BUMI ditransaksikan pada PE2012 sekitar 11x dan EV/EBITDA2012 sekitar 5x. Secara teknikal, harga saham BUMI sudah tertekan cukup dalam dan sudah berada dalam kondisi oversold. Buy on weakness.


13:43  European Shares Seen Higher, Greek Confidence Vote Due
European stocks were expected to open higher on Tuesday ahead of a vote of confidence in the government of Prime Minister George Papandreou on Tuesday evening.

13:16   BUMI Analyst Briefing - 21 Jun'11 - 10 am, Bumi office (DBS)

112 millions new Gaap. 96 millions last year
IFRS restated; no significant changes

2014 100 jt; boost by second conveyer
;operasi 2012

2003 25 jt tons
2007 50 jt tons
2014 100 jt tons

BUMI's strategy is to build overcapacity for every supply chains.
For enabling them produce more flexible

Reserves # would keep increase when BUMI do more over burden

Q2 still wet.
Q2 15-15.5 millions ton
(roughly 40-45%)  at h1

ASP
ASP BUMI premium over peers $3-7 pertons
ASP Q2 11 bisa $90.
Whole the year 11 bisa $90 an
Asp $50 for domestic

2011 H1 the best ever cash margin
Cash cost $35. Plus 18% royalty from ASP

IFRS
Depreciation would be based on unit produced base vs straight line, more comparable.
More marked to market derivatives.
Adjutment of Gallo gain $39 million (NI Q1 should be higher without this exclusion.

Net Debt
Penalty early payment CIC, kecil (oct 11)
CB tidak bisa di pledged
CB and Vallar di harapkan Oct 11 masuk ke FTSE 100
Bisa saja hutang CIC di swap dengan CB, there are many alternative
$610 miilions (interest IRR19 %. For first 9 months. plus 5% penalty)
The motivation of higher CIC IRR, nobody wants to lend 1.9 bio, except equity.
BUMI calculated by lend at that level that they keep make money by getting greater IRR

Capex
It should be $400-500 miilion pa for next several years. but BUMI prefer to choose operation lease like financing
Capex cash $150-200 maximal this years
(Maintanance cost)


11:00  Medco in Talks With Exxon Mobil Unit on Possible Gas Supply
2011-06-21 03:51:29.200 GMT


By Bambang Djanuarto
    June 21 (Bloomberg) -- PT Medco Energi Internasional is in
talks with Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Indonesian unit to supply gas
from its Block-A natural-gas block to Exxon’s Arun liquefied
natural gas plant, Medco Internasional Finance Director
Syamsurizal Munaf told reporters in Jakarta today.
    Medco plans to spend $500 million on captial expenditure
through 2013, Munaf said. Oil production for the year to date
has averaged 29,940 barrels per day, he said.


10:36  EXPECTED TIMETABLE OF PRINCIPAL EVENTS

10.00 a.m. on Monday, 27 June 2011 Court Hearing to sanction the Scheme and confirm the Vallar
Reduction of Capital(1)
Monday, 27 June 2011 Last day of dealings in, and for registration of transfers of,
Vallar Shares
6.00 p.m. on Monday, 27 June 2011 Scheme Record Time
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 Scheme Effective Date
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 Delisting of Vallar Voting Ordinary Shares, Bumi Scheme
Admission and commencement of dealings in Bumi Scheme
Voting Ordinary Shares on the London Stock Exchange
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 Credit of Bumi Scheme Voting Ordinary Shares in
Uncertificated form to CREST accounts


10:34 prospektus bumi pls udah keluar di london
Application for admission of up to 269,700,955 Bumi Voting Ordinary Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List and to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market for listed securities


10:23  Kz today - Here in Indonesia, our weather condition has substantially improved last few months.  Two biggest contractor both reported good May operation figures.  UT's Pama coal production rose 14% MoM to 7m tonnes in May (5M11 was 32.4m tonnes (+3% YoY), 40% of our FY11E of 82m tonnes) and Delta Dunia Coal production rose 3.7% MoM to 2.8m tonnes in May (Total 5M11 production was 13.3m tonnes)  We expect acceleration in production in the 2H as we head into the dry season.

BUY Borneo (BORN IJ), Harum (HRUM IJ), and Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ).

Bank- downgrading BDMN to underperformed tp 6250 and prefer BMRI and BBNI


REMINDER::22 Juni 2011 Rups KARW, BKSL, BRAU, Inti Agri Resources, Indoexchange, Bank Maya International, MASA, IMAS, PICO, Myoh Technologi, ETWA,JIHD,Eatertainment L, Evergreen Invest, CNKO, FKS Multi Agro, Hotel Mandarine, HITS, Intiland  Dev, US FOMC

23 Juni 2011 Rups KIJA, Unitex, TINS, Wahana Phoenix Mandiri, TIRT, Interdelta, CMNP, Perdana Bangun Pusaka, Cita Mineral Investindo, Bank ICB Bumiputera,  TRIM,  KBRI
Cum Right Chandra Asri Petromichal 100:27,  Cum Dev AHAP 5, cum stock split auto 5:1

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