Update News and Rumours Senin 30 Mei 2011

 17:16  ‎​Jakarta - Pemerintah tampaknya akan kembali berniat melaksanakan program pembatasan BBM subsidi setelah gagal dilaksanakan pada 1 April 2011. Program pembatasan ini akan diajukan pada 1 Juli 2011.

Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengatakan, sampai saat ini BBM subsidi paling banyak di konsumsi di Jawa. Kemudian yang paling banyak mengkonsumsinya adalah mobil pribadi dan sepeda motor.


17:15  2nd session on JCI 30.05.11
@ 3826.13 (-6.24pts)(-0.16%)
H:  3836.86 ; L: 3813.66
Value: 6.94 T (NG 4.07 B )
Volume: 425 M (NG 1.70 B )
(Incl. Crossing HRUM @9050~IDR 2.44T )
( TBIG@2200 ~ IDR 848 B )
( BMTR@ 750 ~ IDR 191 B )
Foreign Nett Buy: 9 B
USD/IDR: 8542

10 most active stocks by VALUE:
BMRI @ 7200 (+0.69%)
BUMI @ 3375 (0.00%)
BBRI @ 6400 (+2.40%)
EXCL @ 6300 (-0.78%)
PGAS @ 4050 (0.00%)
UNTR @ 22900 (+1.55%)
JAWA @ 495 (-1.00%)
ADRO @ 2375 (-1.04%)
ASII @ 59050 (-0.25%)
TLKM @ 7600 (-1.29%)

10 most active stocks by VOLUME:
BNBR @ 76 (-2.56%)
ENRG @ 188 (-1.05%)
BHIT @ 185 (+3.35%)
BULL-W @ 49 (+13.95%)
JAWA @ 495 (-1.00%)
DEWA @ 96 (-2.04%)
ENRG-W @ 50 (-3.84%)
UNSP @ 445 (-2.19%)
ELTY-W @ 30 (-6.25%)

JCI for tomorrow:
Support: 3780; 3800
Resistance: 3850; 3870

15:42  crossing 509399 lot di bmtr di 750

14:54  BUMI may announce its first quarter earnings TOMORROW (Tuesday), with net profit likely rising by 65% to $160 from $96.8 million a year earlier due to higher average selling price of its coal despite a slightly lower sales volume

14:44  ELTY 158 33rb, 159 13rb
Tasrul Tanar: ELTY di support kuat, indikator semua di support..Acc.Buy

14:11  ON COAL
(CS) Paworamon Suvarnatemee, CFA: Domestic price in China on the uptrend.Trina Chen, CS’s China Basic Materials analyst, published May Basic Materials report today highlighting upside risk in thermal coal price. Domestic thermal coal price at QHD increased slightly to US$113/t (ex. VAT) and seaborne NEWC spot price stayed at US$119/t. Coal inventory at QHD is 5.9mnt, up 1mnt from the beginning of May. Overall reported coal inventory in China was 268mn tonne as of the end of March 2011, up 1% MoM.  In her report, she highlights upside risk on coal prices in the coming months, driven by potential ease in power tariffs control and weak hydro generation.Figure 1: QHD inventory and coal prices (US$/tonne)
Source: China Coal Market Network, CS estimates
∙         Upside risks to thermal coal price. Peak summer demand in China is expected to be in August. Rising domestic prices in China would suggest that there is room for power plants in China to pay higher prices for imported coal from seaborne market.
∙         CS forecast benchmark coal price in seaborne market of US$120/t in 2Q11 and 3Q11 before the recovery to US$130/t in 4Q11. We assume that gas substitution in Europe, lower seasonal demand from India, and higher supply from Indonesia dry seasons would put a cap on coal prices until the end of 3Q11. The risk of power shortage in China came as a surprise and add to the upside risks of coal prices in seaborne market.
∙         We maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings on PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG.JK, Rp46650.00, O [V], TP Rp57000.00), PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY.JK, Rp4100.00, O, TP Rp5400.00), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA.JK, Rp21200.00, O, TP Rp26500.00).


14:00  DHARMA HENWA'S (DEWA) PRELIMINARY NET PROFIT FOR THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2011 (JANUARY-MAY) ROSE TO $12.8 MILLION (IDR110 BILLION) (RPS IDR10) VS $8.6 MILLION (IDR66.22 BILLION) IN LOSS IN FIRST 5-MONTH OF 2010.

13:11  Bjbr on move: Bjbr dalam 2 bulan ini tdk pernah menembus level 1210. Support kuat pada Level 1220. Target dlm pekan ini 1300.Pada hari ini akan ditembus level 1250.


11:17 RAJAWALI GROUP MAY HAVE TO BUY THE REMAINING 4% STAKE, OR 5.5 BILLION SHARES, OF NUSANTARA INFRASTRUCTURE VIA THE OPEN MARKET, RUNNING AGAINST THE DEADLINE OF JUNE 10. IF THROUGH, META SHARE PRICE MAY BE AT THE AUTOREJECT POSITIONS FOR SEVERAL TIMES IN COMING SESSIONS.


10:32  JAKARTA. PT Polychem Indonesia Tbk (ADMG) menargetkan pertumbuhan laba bersih mencapai 804% di sepanjang tahun ini.

"Laba bersih 2011 diharapkan Rp 339 miliar," kata Richard I Tursadi, Corporate Secretary ADMG. Selama tahun lalu, ADMG mencatatkan laba bersih Rp 37,5 miliar.
      
Menurut Richard, laba bersih bisa tercapai apabila penjualan ADMG meningkat dan beban perusahaan bisa ditekan. Perusahaan yang bergerak di industri kain ban ini menargetkan pendapatan bersih 2011 senilai Rp 4,5 triliun, atau naik 24% dari pendapatan 2010.

10:28  bbri ini ex div 70.04.

CSFB dan CLSA : bullish bank.


09:15  Technically:
Holcim (SMCB  IJ; IDR  2175; Buy on weakness) – MACD bullish didukung Chaikin dan Money Flow

Semen Gresik (SMGR  IJ; IDR  9700; Hold) –  Harga yang merubah arah: IDR 9850

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP  IJ; IDR  17250; Buy on weakness) – Posisi penentu: IDR 18000


09:09  Surya Citra Media    [  PDF  ]

The big jump - by Erwan Teguh

(SCMA IJ / SCMA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp4,950 - Tgt. Rp5,700, Media - Integrated)

We have a higher target price of Rp5,700 (from Rp5,100) for SCMA following our earnings upgrade, still DCF-based (WACC 13.5%, LTG 5%). Adspend continues its run from last year, growing 20% yoy in 1Q11, with growth in TV slightly outpacing the industry's. Strong advertising demand coupled with management's effectiveness in keeping opex in check should underpin another great year for SCMA. We raise our FY11-13 core earnings forecasts by 21-23% following the 1Q11 strength. SCMA remains attractive at an 8% P/E discount to the JCI. Catalysts are further rate hikes, the completion of its parent's acquisition of IDKM, and a second interim dividend possibly  in 4Q11. The stock is still our top sector pick due to its lower risk profile and higher earnings-growth potential. CIMB- selengkapnya lewat email)

09:07  JA Wattie (JAWA) will be listed in IDX today , they float 1.13bio shs of total listed 2.64bio sh, or 30pct of total sh after IPO) , JAWA will be the first Rubber plantation stock proxy in the region given its 65-70pct of revenue coming fr rubber although it also has CPO plantation . JAWA valuation is quite compelling , @ IPO price 500/sh its PER only around 9.8X vs CPO avg PER around 12-13X. Worth noting that rubber has much higher gross margin vs CPO, ie could be up to 400-450pct vs CPO's around 60pct . The growth of JAWA in the next few years will be supported the conversion of immature to mature plantation. Fyi most of the allocation went to foreign institution. The rest is local institution , retails get only a bit.

09:05  U.S. on holiday for Memorial Day.